Holy crap. I've covered British politics for years, but I've never seen anything quite like this earthquake. And I'm not exaggerating when I say earthquake - this is the political equivalent of tectonic plates shifting under our feet.
Nigel Farage is having the last laugh. Actually, he's having a full-blown celebration after his Reform UK party just pulled off what might be the most stunning political upset I've witnessed in my lifetime. Remember when everyone (including me, if I'm honest) rolled their eyes when he said he wanted to be PM by 2029? Yeah... about that.
Six Votes That Changed Everything
Reform's Sarah Pochin snatched victory in Runcorn and Helsby by-election by just SIX VOTES. SIX! I had to double-check that number three times because I couldn't believe it. This was a seat where Labour had a 14,700 majority. Let that sink in.
Farage couldn't contain himself at the count. "We've dug very deep into the Labour vote and, in other parts of England, we've dug deep into the Conservative vote," he gloated. "We are now, after tonight there's no question, in most of teh country, we are now the main opposition party to this Government."
I spoke to a Labour staffer who texted me at 6:30am after the result: "We're absolutely shell-shocked. Nobody saw this coming. Nobody."
What the hell just happened?
Reform UK didn't just win a by-election. They seized control of EIGHT councils (Staffordshire, Derbyshire, Nottinghamshire, Lincolnshire, Kent, Lancashire, Durham and Doncaster), captured 628 council seats, and won two mayoral races.
One of those mayors? Former Olympic boxer Luke Campbell in Hull and East Yorkshire. The other is Andrea Jenkyns in Greater Lincolnshire, who won with a crushing 40,000 majority over her former Conservative colleagues.
Listen. The polling experts are stunned. Professor John Curtice (who's seen everything in British politics) pointed out this is the first time EVER that a party other than Labour or the Tories has led in the projected national share forecast.
The Numbers Are Brutal
If a general election had happened Thursday, the numbers would've looked like this:
Reform UK: 30%
Labour: 20%
Lib Dems: 17%
Conservatives: 15%
Greens: 11%
Others: 7%
The Tories in FOURTH place. I've covered three general elections and I never thought I'd type those words.
Poor Kemi Badenoch. She's barely got her feet under the desk as Conservative leader and already Farage is twisting the knife, flatly rejecting any electoral pact with "No. I don't want to do a deal with them. We're going to win the next election on our own."
The Migrant Question
Farage wasted no time laying out what Reform councils will do. He's basically declared war on the government's migrant housing policy, saying Reform will try to prevent central government from "plonking scores, hundreds of these young men in these counties that we now control."
I spent time in Durham last month, and I can tell you the sentiment there matches what Farage is tapping into. A factory worker I interviewed told me: "I'm up at 5am every day, work my arse off, and can barely afford heating. Then I see these boats coming in and everyone getting put up in hotels. Something's broken."
The Death of Two-Party Politics?
Farage is already writing political obituaries. "This is the end of two party politics as we know it," he declared at his victory rally in County Durham. He called it "the beginning of the end of the Conservative Party" which he claims has been "wiped out" in England's shires.
Is he right? Back in 2019, I bet a colleague £50 that Farage would never hold significant political power in the UK. I think I might need to get my wallet out.
Working Class Warriors
The most fascinating part of all this? Reform is positioning itself as the new workers' party. "We want to reindustrialise Britain, reindustrialise the North, and give men and women well-paid, skilled jobs and a sense of pride in their communities," Farage said.
Election expert Will Jennings confirms Reform is performing best in areas with fewer university graduates and more manufacturing jobs - traditionally Labour's heartland.
I remember interviewing Farage back in 2018 when he was still with UKIP. He told me then: "The working class has been abandoned by Labour. They're coming to us." I thought it was typical Farage bluster at the time.
Not anymore.
What Happens Next?
Farage is already looking beyond local government. "You have cleared a very important hurdle today. And next year we'll clear those hurdles in the Welsh and Scottish parliamentary elections," he told supporters.
And then came the kicker that would have seemed laughable just days ago: "I believe, as I think you believe, we really will make history and win the next general election."
After yesterday? I'm not laughing anymore either.
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