God, where do I even start with this mess.
So apparently we're about to hand out £3.5 billion to families who've never heard the phrase "maybe we can't afford another kid." I've been covering politics for twelve years now, and this two-child benefit cap debate is giving me flashbacks to every other time politicians discovered they could buy votes with taxpayer money. My mate Dave (works at the Treasury) texted me yesterday: "already updating my resume."
The Numbers That'll Make Your Head Spin
Since 2017, parents could only claim child tax credit and universal credit for their first two kids - if those kids were born after April 2017. Simple enough, right? Wrong. Because now both Labour and Reform want to bin the whole thing, and the math is absolutely wild.
We're talking about 450,000 families getting hit by this cap last year alone. Most have three kids (280,000 families), but here's where it gets mental - 56,000 families are raising five or more children. Five. Or. More.
And get this - there are still 15 families out there claiming child benefit for 13+ kids. Thirteen bloody children! Over 16,000 families are getting money for six kids, and more than 5,000 are claiming for seven.
Keir's £20 Bet With Reality
Remember when Starmer ruled out scrapping this cap back in 2023? Yeah, well, that lasted about as long as my New Year's diet. On Thursday, he basically threw his previous position under the bus faster than you can say "Labour rebel."
The PM was visiting some glass manufacturing plant in Warrington (because nothing says "I understand working families" like a factory photo-op), and three separate times journalists asked if he'd ditch the cap. Three times he refused to rule it out.
His exact words? He's "determined to drive down child poverty" and ministers are "looking at all options." Translation: we're absolutely going to do this, but I need to find a way to spin it that doesn't make me look like a complete hypocrite.
Wait, Even Nigel's Gone Soft?
Here's the bit that made me spit out my coffee. Nigel Farage - yes, that Nigel Farage - announced Reform would ditch the cap completely if they got into power. Even Esther McVey called him out for "chasing Labour to the Left."
Poor woman's got a point though. She said encouraging people to have kids they can't afford and expecting others to foot the bill is "financially and morally indefensible." Harsh? Maybe. Wrong? That's the £3.5 billion question.
The Bit Nobody Wants to Talk About
Here's what really gets me - around 180,000 of these affected families have zero adults in paid work. None. Not even part-time at the local Tesco.
Now before you start typing angry comments, I know it's complicated. Nearly three in five families hit by the cap actually have at least one adult working. These aren't all people gaming the system - some are genuinely struggling despite having jobs.
But still. 180,000 households where nobody works, and we're about to hand them an average of £4,300 each? The Institute for Fiscal Studies worked out that number, by the way. I didn't just pull it from thin air.
How We Got Into This Beautiful Disaster
This whole thing started back in 2012 when Iain Duncan Smith had what he probably thought was a brilliant idea. George Osborne picked it up in 2015, and by 2017 it was official policy.
The logic seemed sound enough - make the benefit system fairer for taxpayers and ensure families on benefits face the same financial decisions as everyone else. You know, like "can we actually afford another mouth to feed?"
But now we've got 1.6 million children affected by this limit. That's one in nine kids. The Child Poverty Action Group says 109 children get pulled into poverty every single day because of this cap.
Torsten Bell (who used to run the Resolution Foundation and is now a Labour Treasury minister - convenient, that) reckons scrapping the cap would lift 470,000 children out of poverty. Sounds great until you remember someone has to pay for it.
And that someone is us.
Look, I get it. Nobody wants kids living in poverty. But there's something deeply uncomfortable about a system that essentially pays people to have more children when they're already struggling to support the ones they've got. Call me old-fashioned, but shouldn't there be some connection between personal responsibility adn public money?
My editor bet me £20 that this policy gets scrapped within six months. Based on Starmer's performance this week, I'm not taking that bet.
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