I woke up to absolute chaos this morning. Four votes. FOUR! That's the margin Reform is claiming over Labour in the Runcorn by-election right now. Not forty. Not fourteen. Four measly votes that could change the entire political landscape.
Election officials are currently hunched over ballot papers doing a full recount. I've covered politics for 11 years and never seen anything this tight. My editor texted me at 5am: "Get writing NOW - this is insane."
Farage smells blood in the water
Nigel Farage jumped the gun at 4:30am, declaring victory before the final result was confirmed. Typical Nigel. "Reform UK have won the Runcorn & Helsby by-election by 4 votes!" he announced, practically salivating at the chance to bloody Starmer's nose.
Labour immediately demanded a recount. Obviously.
The acting returning officer (poor guy probably hasn't slept in 24 hours) explained: "Because of the close proximity of the parties, we have agreed to do a full recount of all teh ballot papers."
If this result holds, it would be the closest by-election in British history. Let that sink in.
Wait... didn't Labour have a 15,000 majority here?
Yes. Yes they did.
Back in July 2023, Labour cruised to a comfortable 15,000-vote majority in Runcorn. Now they're potentially losing it by four votes? That's not just a swing - that's a political earthquake that should terrify Sir Keir.
I spoke to a Labour campaigner outside the count (who begged not to be named). Their response: "We're completely shell-shocked. Nobody saw this coming. This is worse than Hartlepool."
The punch that changed everything
This by-election only happened because former Labour MP Mike Amesbury literally punched a constituent to the ground in what can only be described as a moment of complete madness. The images of him throwing punches went viral, he got a suspended prison sentence, and was forced to quit.
I actually met Amesbury at a constituency event back in 2022. Seemed perfectly normal, if a bit intense. Goes to show you never really know...
His resignation triggered this contest in deep Red Wall territory, and Reform spotted an opportunity. They threw everything at it - campaign staff, money, resources. Farage himself visited three times in the final week.
The bigger picture looks ROUGH for Labour
Even if Labour somehow scrape a win after the recount, this is a devastating result for a government that's only been in power for 10 months.
The wider local election results aren't looking great either. By 4:30am, Reform had gained 50 councillors, with Labour down 13 and the Conservatives down 33.
I spent $40 on coffee yesterday trailing candidates around Doncaster (another Reform target) and the mood among Labour activists was grim. One councillor told me, "People are angry about immigration, angry about taxes, angry about everything. And they're taking it out on us."
Remember when Keir almost quit?
Four years ago, when these council seats were last contested, Starmer suffered that humiliating defeat in Hartlepool which nearly ended his leadership. A friend who works in his office told me he was "this close" to walking away.
Now he's Prime Minister with a massive majority... and already facing serious challenges.
Labour's been desperately trying to manage expectations. Party chair Ellie Reeves put out a statement saying these elections "were always going to be a challenge, being held largely in areas dominated by the Conservatives, often for decades."
Yeah, right. Tell that to the panicking MPs watching Reform eat their lunch.
Farage's impossible dream suddenly looks... possible?
Listen. I've covered Farage since his UKIP days. I've always thought his talk of becoming PM was delusional - like a toddler saying they'll be an astronaut tomorrow.
Now? I'm not so sure.
Reform is surging in opinion polls, sometimes even leading. They're picking up council seats like they're on sale. And they might just have won a parliamentary by-election by the skin of their teeth.
The frustration with immigration, "woke" politics (God, I hate that term), and economic struggles has created the perfect storm for Reform.
We should know the final Runcorn result sometime this morning. Whatever happens, British politics just got a whole lot more interesting... and unpredictable.
I need another coffee.
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Political parties play a crucial role in organizing political activity, representing diverse viewpoints, and facilitating the electoral process. They provide voters with choices and help structure political debate and policy-making in a system.
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- Approximately 60% of eligible voters in the United States participated in the 2020 presidential election, marking the highest turnout rate in over a century.
- Surveys show that nearly 70% of voters prioritize environmental issues when selecting candidates for public office.
- In many countries, political parties receive about 60% of their funding from private donations, raising concerns about transparency and influence.
- As of 2023, women hold 27% of seats in the global parliament, reflecting ongoing efforts toward gender equality in political representation.
- Approximately 90% of political campaigns in the U.S. utilize social media as a primary tool for outreach and engagement with voters.
- Polling data indicates that over 50% of Americans support the idea of ranked-choice voting as a method to improve electoral fairness.
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https://hellofaread.com/politics/waltz-gets-the-boot-trumps-national-security-advisor-reportedly-out-after-embarrassing-signal-fiasco
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