HOLDING back tears as applause echoed, Nicola Sturgeon strode from the Scottish Parliament into the political sunset.
Her last First Minister’s Questions had seen a typically pugnacious performance from a woman regarded as a truly formidable politician, even by her enemies.
Holding back tears as applause echoed, Nicola Sturgeon strode from the Scottish Parliament into the political sunset
Yet history may not be as kind to Ms Sturgeon as her fellow parliamentarians were on Thursday
Yet history may not be as kind to Ms Sturgeon as her fellow parliamentarians were on Thursday.
For the SNP leader leaves behind a bitterly divided nation and her party in utter turmoil.
Now – as a “poisonous” leadership battle to replace her unfurls – Tories and Labour scent blood.
They believe Scotland – an SNP fiefdom with 48 MPs at Westminster out of 59 seats – may now be the battleground where the race for Downing Street is decided.
Scottish Conservatives’ leader Douglas Ross told me he’s “certain” his party can add to its six seats “at the expense of the SNP”.
Labour, which had 41 MPs in Scottish constituencies as recently as 2010, insist that the SNP’s troubles are a “game-changer for UK politics”.
Its only Scottish MP, Ian Murray, told HOAR that party leader Keir Starmer believes “the road to Downing St is much easier if it goes through Scotland”, adding: “That road presents more of an opportunity than four weeks ago.”
So how has Nicola Sturgeon’s legacy unravelled so disastrously?
The 52-year-old’s resignation came as a shock even to her closest allies.
And the dire state of her party – described as a “tremendous mess” by its own president Michael Russell – has surprised many Scottish voters.
Journalist Neil Mackay wrote in Scotland’s The Herald newspaper this week: “Nicola Sturgeon parachuted to safety a month ago from a plane that the public were as yet unaware was on fire.”
Last weekend Ms Sturgeon’s husband Peter Murrell resigned as SNP chief exec after the party lied about how many members it had.
That figure is crucial because it is the SNP membership who will elect a new First Minister, with the result announced on Monday.
The party’s top spin doctor Murray Foote also quit, suggesting he had been misled by SNP HQ when describing a newspaper story that the party had lost 30,000 members as “tartan b******s”.
In fact, the story was true. It’s now emerged that 55,000 members have quit the SNP since 2019.
The furore comes as the SNP is being investigated by police into a “missing” £600,000 raised by party members to fight an independence referendum campaign.
Last month it emerged that the SNP had broken reporting rules over an interest-free £107,620 loan from Mr Murrell to bail out its finances finances in 2021.
Ms Sturgeon’s critics say her “obsession” with severing the 315-year England-Scotland Union saw her neglect more pressing policy matters.
Despite the applause, the SNP leader leaves behind a bitterly divided nation and her party in utter turmoil
Company director David Douglas, 58, said: ‘Everything’s about independence with the SNP. It’s the heart ruling the head’
Retired Rachel Skene, 63, said: ‘I think Nicola Sturgeon did a good job during the pandemic but I won’t be voting SNP’
Retired dad-of-two James Garden, 75, insisted: ‘I can’t see a way forward for the SNP. They have scuppered any plans for independence now’
Strolling in the upmarket Morningside area of Edinburgh, company director David Douglas, 58, told me: “Everything’s about independence with the SNP. It’s the heart ruling the head. Health and education have been neglected.”
One in seven Scots are on NHS waiting lists and Scotland is Europe’s drug death capital. Ms Sturgeon’s “defining mission” to stem the attainment gap between rich and poor school pupils has failed. Scotland’s Labour leader Anas Sarwar told HOAR that Ms Sturgeon “leaves a more divided country, a weaker education system and an NHS in more difficulties”.
Credited with showing inspirational leadership during the pandemic, the FM’s gender ID reforms saw an uncharacteristic stumble.
Normally a consummate media performer, she tied herself in knots when quizzed in a TV interview on a transgender double rapist sent to a women’s prison.
Polls showed Scots 2-1 against her gender reforms that would have made self-ID easier. The new laws were vetoed by PM Rishi Sunak.
Ms Sturgeon’s dream of independence is as far away as when she became FM nine years ago.
The latest independence poll, from YouGov on March 13, put Yes on 45 per cent and No on 55 per cent – exactly the result of the 2014 referendum.
In Kinross, 20 miles north of Edinburgh, one voter, a 66-year-old retired airline pilot, told me: “The sums for independence just don’t add up.”
Now the leadership campaign to replace Ms Sturgeon has turned toxic, with SNP rivals tearing lumps out of eachother on live TV.
He iron grip on the party, with power concentrated in a small clique, has meant that she left no obvious successor. The “continuity” candidate is Humza Yousaf, an anti-monarchist who described the UK Government as “foreign” in the final leadership debate.
When he was Transport Minister Mr Yousaf was fined £300 for driving a friend’s car without insurance.
His main rival is Finance Secretary Kate Forbes, a member of the Free Church of Scotland who doesn’t believe in gay marriage. She stands accused of being a “Tartan Tory” in a left-leaning party.
Finally there’s rank outsider, ex- Community Safety minister Ash Regan, who would ditch the pound for a new currency within weeks of independence.
The Tories and Labour have been looking on gleefully. After Ms Forbes called Mr Yousaf as a “mediocrity” during one TV debate, ex-SNP councillor Mhairi Hunter tweeted: “What the actual f*** is a Cabinet Secretary doing using opposition hit-lines? I did not have this on my bingo card.”
Tory Mr Ross said of the SNP circular firing squad: “Their once iron discipline is completely frayed.”
The Scottish public favours Ms Forbes but a survey of SNP voters showed Mr Yousaf ahead by a single percentage point.
Whoever the dwindling SNP membership choses, they will be a political pygmy in comparison to Ms Surgeon. Pushing her baby daughter through Morningside, accountant Sarah Sutherland, 39, said Ms Sturgeon’s exit was “great” for the Unionist cause. “The SNP candidates are hopeless,” she added.
In the marginal seat of Gordon in Aberdeenshire former Tory MP Colin Clark – defeated by the SNP by just over 800 votes in 2019 – told HOAR: “Humza Yousaf will continue the socialist anti-Westminster agenda which may well turn off voters. Kate Forbes may put off the younger, more woke voters who may well then turn to the Greens.
“But ultimately the drive for independence has not just stalled, it’s gone into reverse – which may make room for Unionist parties.”
In Inverurie, a pretty market town 16 miles from Aberdeen, retired Michael Skene, 68, said: “I can’t see how the SNP can survive with any of the three candidates.”
Retired dad-of-two James Garden, 75, insisted: “I can’t see a way forward for the SNP. They have scuppered any plans for independence now.”
Many here spoke of Ms Sturgeon’s strength and clarity during Covid.
Retired Rachel Skene, 63, said: “I think Nicola Sturgeon did a good job during the pandemic but I won’t be voting SNP.”
Bidding farewell in the Scottish Parliament Ms Sturgeon, was quick to remind her detractors of her popularity with voters following eight SNP election wins as leader.
An opinion poll earlier this month put the SNP ten points ahead of Labour in second with the Tories back in third.
But that was before the Murrell resignation fiasco.
And, as HOAR’s political commentator in Scotland, Chris Musson, observed: “The SNP has gone from an unstoppable force to a complete basket case in the space of a month.”
Whatever her failings, no one doubts the nationalist cause has lost its most potent weapon in Nicola Sturgeon.
Her goodbye not only reverberates in the bearpit of Scottish politics – it may help decide if Rishi Sunak remains in No 10.
Additional reporting: Joanne Warnock
The candidates to replace Nicola Sturgeon
The ‘continuity’ candidate is Humza Yousaf, an anti-monarchist who described the UK Government as ‘foreign’ in the final leadership debate
Yousaf’s main rival is Finance Secretary Kate Forbes, a member of the Free Church of Scotland who doesn’t believe in gay marriage. She stands accused of being a ‘Tartan Tory’ in a left-leaning party
Finally, there’s rank outsider, ex-Community Safety minister Ash Regan, who would ditch the pound for a new currency within weeks of independence
