So John Healey just dropped a bombshell.
The Defence Secretary told The Times this week that Britain will definitely hit 3% of GDP on defence spending by the next parliament. Not "might" or "hopefully" – will. That's a massive jump from the current 2.3% we're limping along with right now, and honestly? I'm not sure anyone in Whitehall actually knows how they're going to pay for it.
The £10 Billion Question Nobody Wants to Answer
Here's the thing that's been bugging me since I read this story. We're talking about an extra £10 billion per year. That's not pocket change – that's serious money that has to come from somewhere. And judging by how the Treasury and MoD have been scrapping like cats in a bag over this review, I'm guessing the Chancellor isn't exactly thrilled about writing that cheque.
The defence review was supposed to drop on VE Day. Classic timing, right? Except it didn't. Word is the delay came down to good old-fashioned bureaucratic warfare between departments. Makes you wonder if Healey's jumping the gun here.
What We're Actually Getting Monday
The 130-page monster of a review hits Monday, and apparently it's been written with American, French, and German troops literally embedded in the team. Smart move, actually – means our allies can't complain later that we didn't consult them.
But here's where it gets interesting (and slightly terrifying). The whole plan is built around hitting that 3% target by 2034. If we don't? The entire decade-long modernisation programme becomes what one source called "unaffordable." That's government speak for "completely screwed."
Why Everyone's Suddenly Panicking About Defence
Military chiefs have been pretty blunt lately – we're not ready for a proper scrap with Russia. The Americans are getting irritated with our measly 2.3% spending (they actually used the word "irritant" in private conversations, which is diplomatic speak for "sort your act out").
And it gets worse. NATO's June summit is expected to push for 3.5% spending commitments. Makes our 3% target look almost modest.
The Reality Check
Look, I want to believe this will happen. We desperately need those Tempest jets, the Ajax tanks that actually work properly, and enough ammunition to last more than a few weeks in a real conflict. But promising something in "the next parliament" when you might not even be in power? That's political wishful thinking.
The review is supposedly "scalable" – programmes can speed up if Starmer decides to throw more cash at defence. But it can also slow down if the money isn't there. And given Labour's other spending commitments, something's got to give.
Right now, this feels like a promise made in hope rather than certainty. The MoD spokesman's statement about "when fiscal and economic conditions allow" pretty much gives the game away – there's still a massive if hanging over the whole thing.
We'll know more Monday. But don't hold your breath for the Treasury to suddenly find an extra £10 billion down the back of the sofa.
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