Tories bracing for local election massacre that would make even Jesus weep

By HOAR Team 27 April, 2025 4 mins read 112 Views

Good lord. The Conservative Party's about to get absolutely hammered on Thursday—and they know it. Their own internal projections show they're staring down the barrel of losing over 700 council seats. SEVEN HUNDRED. I had to double-check that number when my source first mentioned it because it seemed almost apocalyptic.

One former minister (who clearly hasn't lost their sense of humor despite everything) told me: "We could have Jesus Christ himself leading us and we'd still flop this week." Brutal, but probably accurate.

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The numbers are straight-up terrifying

So here's teh situation: On Thursday, voters will elect 1,641 councillors across 23 local authorities in England. The Tories currently control 19 of those councils. But after speaking with three different Conservative insiders yesterday, the mood is... well, funereal is putting it mildly.

"It's a very realistic scenario to imagine we might lose control of every single council," one party source admitted over coffee. His expression when saying this reminded me of someone watching their house burn down while holding an empty fire extinguisher.

Every. Single. Council.

Farage lurking like a vulture at a roadkill convention

Meanwhile, Reform UK is circling the carcass. They're specifically targeting Tory-run Lincolnshire, and YouGov polling suggests Nigel Farage's party could actually win two key mayoral elections on May 1—Greater Lincolnshire, and Hull and East Yorkshire.

I spent some time in Lincolnshire back in 2018 visiting family, and let me tell you, the shift in sentiment there is remarkable. People who've voted Conservative their entire lives are jumping ship faster than rats from the Titanic.

Will they chuck Kemi overboard?

Listen. After the revolving door of prime ministers that made Britain an international laughingstock (I still get texts from my American friends asking "who's in charge this week?"), senior Tories are promising there is "no way in hell" they'll try to topple Kemi Badenoch after these results.

One insider, who was three drinks in when we spoke, said the party "still has PTSD" from ending the careers of so many PMs. Last July's election disaster is still fresh—like a wound that hasn't even formed a scab yet.

The Runcorn wildcard

There's also a fascinating by-election happening in Runcorn & Helsby where Labour MP Mike Amesbury admitted assault. That one's apparently much closer than anyone expected.

I spoke with a Reform campaigner who spent £400 on leaflets out of his own pocket last weekend. "Labour thinks this is in the bag," he told me. "Their complacency is our opportunity." The Conservative candidate just looked exhausted when I bumped into him outside a polling station yesterday.

The party insiders I've talked to are saying it's neck-and-neck between Labour and Reform. The Tories might as well not be running.

The morning after

What happens Friday morning? I've covered enough election post-mortems to recognize the script. There'll be brave faces, talk of "listening to voters," and promises to "reconnect with ordinary people."

But privately? The WhatsApp groups will be on fire. I've already got plans to meet three different MPs for "background chats" on Friday afternoon. Something tells me I should bring tissues... or maybe whiskey.

The Conservative Party that dominated British politics for so long is unrecognizable now. And after Thursday, it might be unrecoverable.

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https://hellofaread.com/politics/rayner-ready-to-walk-over-housing-targets-as-cabinet-tensions-boil-over