God. You know things are bad when a party starts plotting leadership coups just months after losing an election. But here we are, watching the Tories scramble like cats on a hot tin roof.
I was chatting with a Conservative insider last week (over what was supposed to be a quick coffee that turned into three hours of political therapy) who couldn't stop talking about Ben Houchen. "He's our only hope," they whispered, glancing around the café like MI5 might be listening. The desperation was palpable.
Why Everyone's Suddenly Obsessed with Houchen
For those who haven't been following the soap opera that is British politics, Ben Houchen is currently the Mayor of Tees Valley and something of a unicorn in today's Conservative Party – someone who actually wins elections.
The Tories are quietly urging Lord Houchen to ditch his fancy peerage and slum it with the commoners by becoming an MP. Why? Because they think he's got "that Boris Johnson magic" (their words, not mine). Translation: he connects with voters who wouldn't normally touch a Tory with a ten-foot pole.
I remember interviewing Houchen back in 2018 about his plans for Teesside. He showed up 20 minutes late, hair slightly disheveled, apologizing profusely about some transport disaster. Yet somehow, by teh end of our chat, I'd forgotten to be annoyed. That's exactly the quality they're desperate for.
Kemi's Sinking Ship
Let's be brutally honest. Kemi Badenoch's leadership has all the momentum of a dead fish. The polls are abysmal, party morale is underground, and Reform UK is circling like vultures.
One MP texted me last night: "We're heading for single digits in May. Single. Digits." His response when I asked if Kemi could turn things around? "Already updating my LinkedIn."
Ouch.
The David Davis Hail Mary
In what feels like political desperation from central casting, some Tories are floating Sir David Davis as a potential caretaker leader if Kemi gets the boot soon.
Yes, THAT David Davis. The guy who lost to Cameron in 2005. The same one who's been in Parliament since dinosaurs roamed the earth.
I spent $40 on dinner with a former Cabinet minister last month who nearly choked on his risotto when I mentioned this possibility. "We're not that desperate," he spluttered. (Narrator: They are that desperate.)
When Will the Axe Fall?
The consensus among the Westminster bubble-dwellers is that Kemi's first real danger zone comes after the May local elections. The party is bracing for what one senior figure described to me as "electoral waterboarding."
But most MPs I've spoken with think it's too early for regicide. The real moment of truth will likely come after next year's Welsh elections.
I feel stupid now for writing back in January that Kemi would get at least 18 months to prove herself. Politics moves at warp speed these days.
The Houchen Question Mark
When contacted for this piece, Lord Houchen declined to comment. Smart man.
Listen. The real question isn't whether Houchen wants the job – it's whether anyone with political sense would touch the Tory leadership with hazmat gloves right now. The party's polling somewhere between "catastrophic" and "extinction-level event."
A former Tory adviser (who now makes triple his old salary in the private sector) told me over drinks: "Whoever takes over now is just arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. The smart play is to wait until after the next election."
But politics isn't about smart plays anymore. It's about survival.
And right now, the Tories are drowning.
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