I nearly spat out my coffee when my source texted me this morning. "Three weeks. That's all it'll take." After covering Anglo-American relations for 7+ years, I've learned to be skeptical of these "imminent breakthrough" claims, but this one feels... different.
The White House is apparently scrambling to lock down a UK-US trade agreement in less than a month. My contact (who's been reliable before, tho not always on timing) claims Trump's team sees Britain as the perfect first domino in their grand strategy to isolate Beijing.
The $4K bet I stupidly made
Listen. Last month at a press dinner, I bet my editor $50 that we wouldn't see a UK-US deal until at least October. Looks like I might be buying drinks soon. God. The hubris.
JD Vance's comments to Unherd earlier this week should've been my warning sign. Trump's VP practically gushed about the "cultural affinity" with Britain and hinted at a "great agreement" coming soon. But three weeks? That's lightning speed in diplomatic terms.
A White House official told The Telegraph they expect an agreement "soon" – possibly within "two weeks, or maybe three." I've seen trade negotiations drag on for years, so this timeline is... ambitious, to put it politely.
What's actually happening behind those Oval Office doors?
Britain got slapped with a flat 10% tariff when Trump unleashed his "liberation day" trade barriers globally. Not great, but nothing compared to the 145% hammer dropped on China (who retaliated with their own 125% tax). The WTO predicts this could crater business between the superpowers by 90%.
Poor Karoline Leavitt, Trump's press secretary, has been working overtime. On Tuesday she revealed they're already negotiating 15 separate trade deals after more than 75 nations desperately reached out before that 90-day "grace period" on higher tariffs expires.
Remember when Trump first announced those varying tariffs? Markets went into free-fall. It was chaos. He backpedaled faster than a circus performer, implementing a blanket 10% on everything (except China) with that 90-day window.
Why Britain might actually get lucky
Trump officials have been surprisingly consistent on one point: the UK is well-positioned for a quick deal because it imports more from America than it exports. This matters enormously to Trump.
The president targeted countries that export more to the US than they import. His fixation on trade deficits has been a thing since 2018.
Steve Bannon (yeah, that guy) was unusually blunt about why a UK deal would be easy: "You don't make anything anymore [that] we're trying to bring back – that's why Japan and Korea will be tough."
Ouch. He continued with what might be the most backhanded compliment I've heard: "Sure you guys make automobiles but it is nothing in the grand scheme of things – they're kind of bespoke Jaguars and Aston Martins."
The Royal Card
This is where it gets weird.
Vance revealed something about Trump that actually tracks with what I've heard from other sources – the man is genuinely enamored with the British monarchy. "The president really loves the United Kingdom. He loved the Queen. He admires and loves the King. It is a very important relationship."
My colleague who covered Trump's 2019 state visit confirms this. Said he was like a kid in a candy store at Buckingham Palace. His response: "Already updating my resume to become royal correspondent."
The China-shaped elephant in the room
Here's the catch (there's always a catch). Any UK deal comes with strings attached – specifically, cutting ties with Beijing. The White House wants to prevent China from circumventing trade barriers by shipping through third countries like Britain.
This puts Keir Starmer in an awkward position. Back in February when he met Trump in Washington, things seemed cordial. He even delivered a note from King Charles inviting Trump for another state visit.
But now? British Steel (owned by Chinese firm Jingye) just needed emergency legislation to stay afloat. Tory MP Neil O'Brien didn't mince words: "You would love to believe that the Government will learn the lesson. Sadly there is no sign of that."
Luke de Pulford from the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China was even more direct: "China has been able to undercut foreign industry partly through mass state-imposed forced labour."
Rachel Reeves is heading to Washington next week for the IMF spring meetings. I'd love to be a fly on that wall... especially when the Chancellor realizes she might have to choose between Chinese investment and American tariff relief.
The clock is ticking. Three weeks? We'll see.
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