Jesus. It's like watching a car crash in slow motion. The honeymoon period for Labour lasted what - three months? Four? Now we're back to the same old union battles that made the 70s such a joy for everyone involved.
Strike threats are hanging over us like storm clouds after Downing Street basically told teachers and NHS workers they can forget about proper funding for their pay rises. I spent Tuesday morning talking to a friend who teaches at a comprehensive in Leeds, and her exact words were: "We're all just waiting for the other shoe to drop." Poor woman hasn't had a real-terms pay increase since 2010.
The numbers game nobody wants to play
Here's where it gets messy. Pay review bodies (those supposedly independent groups that recommend salary increases) are pushing for around 4% for teachers and 3% for NHS staff. But - and this is the kicker - budgets only account for 2.8%.
So who pays for the difference? According to Number 10, that money needs to come from existing department budgets. Which is government-speak for "figure it out yourselves."
Unions are, predictably, furious.
When promises meet reality
Daniel Kebede, who heads up the National Education Union, didn't mince his words. "It's really important that we do have a pay award that takes steps to address that crisis in recruitment and retention but equally, we need to see the pay award funded."
Translation: Don't make schools choose between paying teachers properly or buying textbooks.
He also reminded the government about their election promises: "They were elected on the promise of change, of recruiting six and a half thousand new teachers. We hope they stick to those promises."
That last bit felt like a warning shot across the bow if I've ever heard one.
Rachel's impossible math problem
I almost feel sorry for Rachel Reeves. Almost. The Chancellor is stuck between teh rock of public sector demands and the hard place of economic reality. With Trump threatening trade wars and the economy still wobbling like a newborn foal, she's facing pressure to either hike taxes or slash spending in the upcoming Budget.
Neither option wins friends.
Been there, struck that
The Royal College of Nursing's Jo Galbraith-Marten echoed what everyone in healthcare is thinking - any pay rise needs proper funding or it's just robbing Peter to pay Paul. Her exact words: taking resources away from front-line services is "unfair on staff and bad for patients."
Last year, ministers caved and accepted recommendations between 4.75% and 6% to end the disputes that had ambulances parked and operations canceled. I remember interviewing a paramedic in Manchester who'd lost £3,200 in wages from striking but said he'd do it again in a heartbeat.
Will we see a repeat? Nobody's saying the S-word yet, but it's hanging in the air.
The Tories couldn't resist...
Andrew Griffith, now Shadow Business Secretary, jumped in with both feet: "People forgot what the 1970s were like, but Labour is giving us all a refresher course – bins rotting in the streets, waves of strikes and unions holding the country to ransom."
Rich coming from the party that presided over the most days lost to strikes since the 80s, but whatever. Politics gonna politic.
Starmer tried playing peacemaker yesterday, saying the "last thing" NHS staff wanted was more disputes. "If you work with the NHS staff, you get better results than the last government, which just went into battle with them," he said.
"So we have got our doctors and nurses on the front line, not the picket line, and I think everybody appreciates that's a much better way of doing business."
Nice words. Let's see if they translate to actual funding.
Back in 2016 I covered the junior doctors' strikes. The placards and chants change, but the fundamental issues never seem to. And now we're watching the same movie with different actors.
Hold onto your hats, folks. Autumn could get bumpy.
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