SOCIAL bubbles with larger households risks sending the coronavirus R rate of transmission above one, scientific documents warned today.
As part of a raft of documents from Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) which were published today, experts warned against allowing Brits to “bubble up” with another household so soon after other lockdown measures are relaxed.
Boris Johnson has announced that from tomorrow single people living alone – or lone parents with kids under 18 – can bubble up with another household to provide social support.
They will be allowed in and out of each other’s homes and can stay overnight.
But scientists said that extending this policy to everyone would see the virus spread again.
In a statement signed off by SAGE expert modellers on May 13, they said: “Bubbles involving larger households are more likely to result in R increasing above one.”
And allowing people to bubble even in small households will have a “measurable” impact on R – the transmission of the virus across the country.
The R rate should be 0.8 or below before thinking about introducing a bubbling strategy, it warned.
During a meeting of SAGE on May 14, the experts concluded: “SAGE advised that social bubbles have the potential to create unwanted effects and advised against their introduction in the short term, when other social distancing measures have only just been lifted.”
The group of scientific experts who advise the Government has warned against making too many changes at the same time.
Next week shops are due to reopen across England, and some secondary school children will go back for contact time with their teachers.
“Any bubbling will increase infection risk,” the minutes warned.
“If introduced, bubbling should only happen when it is safe to do so from an epidemiological perspective and on a very modest basis initially.”
The smaller the household, the smaller the risk of more infection spreading, the advice said.
And breaking the rules around bubbling – such as going to visit multiple households – would likely see the “spread of the infection”.
In order for it to be effective, no person can be a part of more than one bubble.
That also means that if any member of the bubble gets sick of has symptoms, they will all need to isolate.
The news will dash hopes for the public who are desperate to try and meet their families and hug them once again after months apart.
The documents mean that any more lockdown easements are likely to be put off for the meantime, to give time to make sure the current changes don’t push the R rate too high.
The reproduction number, referred to as R, of coronavirus across the UK remains between 0.7 and 0.9, while across England it is 0.8-1.0, it was revealed this afternoon.
SAGE also published regional values for R in England for the first time, with the South West having the highest range at 0.8-1.1.
The East of England is at 0.7 – 0.9, London, the Midlands, the North West and the South East at 0.8 – 1.0, and the North East and Yorkshire at 0.7 – 1.0.
