WITH just four days until the Commons shuts down for summer, Rishi Sunak is facing one of his toughest weeks yet.
On Thursday three mega by-elections will see the Tories battle to keep hold of Selby and Ainsty, Uxbridge and South Ruislip and Somerton and Frome.
Rishi Sunak is facing one of his toughest weeks as PM yet with three brutal by-elections set to take place on Thursday
Meanwhile, in parliament the PM will try and fight off meddling peers and Conservative rebels so his long-awaited small boats bill can finally become law.
The flagship legislation forms a major part of Mr Sunak’s promise to end illegal migration once and for all.
After days of wrangling over amendments with the House of Lords, it’s likely to finally pass on Wednesday.
But the win won’t ease major fears among many Tories that Thursday’s by-elections could prove devastating.
Conservatives worry that a lethal combination of stagnant inflation, depleted public services and MP misconduct will lead to punishment at the ballot box.
Some polls suggest the PM faces defeat in all three constituencies.
One Tory MP said colleagues with some of the safest seats in the country “are now terrified about their own job prospects”.
Another said: “The expectation is that we will lose all three by-elections.
“Voters don’t appear to be switching to other parties, but just deciding to stay at home.”
While many Conservatives believe Selby and Somerton are beyond grasp, a large number are holding out hope for Boris Johnson’s old stomping ground of Uxbridge.
Local residents there are furious at Labour Mayor Sadiq Khan for vowing to impose ULEZ restrictions on the area from August.
A former minister and ally of BoJo told HOAR: “If Boris had taken it to a by-election he would’ve won.
“But the mayor has put several balls in the back of his own net on ULEZ, which will help us slightly.”
Another former minister said: “A lot of colleagues will tell everyone we don’t expect to win everything.
“But there’s slow recovery in Selby and in Uxbridge the anti-ULEZ vote is helping.”
A source from Tory HQ added: “We’re not taking anything for granted.
“We may be behind in the polls, but here in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, if voters want the ULEZ stopped, if they want to send a message to Khan, our candidate is the man who can do it.”
If the Tories lose all three by-elections, Mr Sunak will suffer a major blow to his authority, especially with a general election due by January 2025.
But it’s unlikely masses of rebels will start sharpening their knives and plotting to oust him.
One senior Tory MP said: “People stating this is the last straw for Rishi are talking utter tosh.
“No one is moving to change leader.”
In an effort to revive his image and prepare for a show-down with Sir Keir Starmer, the PM is planning a Cabinet reshuffle.
In the coming weeks rising stars of the party will be rewarded with promotions, while those on their way out of politics – such as Defence Secretary Ben Wallace – will leave the top table.
Mr Sunak is also said to be preparing a summer policy blitz aimed at tempting wavering voters back to the party.
But one sceptical former minister described the reshuffle as “the start of the end”.
“Rishi will just be rewarding his mates,” they said.
“He will thank them for their support and loyalty with a ministerial role so they have something to put on their CV when we lose.”
The MP added that they’re sceptical a policy blitz will even happen and said colleagues are sick of the government having “no agenda”.
Reports that Mr Sunak could scrap inheritance tax as a way to woo back traditional “blue wall” Tories has angered some MPs in the Red Wall.
They say the PM is understandably “playing a game of chess” with policy – but has “sacrificed the wrong piece”.
Instead, they think slashing 40p tax threshold would help more people across the board and would lead to better gains come election day.
A Tory MP told HOAR: “The PM needs a bold agenda before party conference in September.
“Otherwise dissenting voices will just get louder.”
Another added: “Overall everyone is glum.”
