The recent by-elections in Tamworth and Mid-Bedfordshire delivered a crushing blow to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his party. The historic swings against the Tories are among the worst by-election results in history. So, what can Sunak do to regain momentum and secure a victory in the next election?
The Key to Winning: Security
According to weekly voter polls and focus groups, the word that resonates most with voters is "security." They want economic security amid a cost of living crisis and falling living standards. They want physical security from a struggling National Health Service and rising crime rates. They want national security from uncontrolled immigration and terrorist sympathizers. And they want cultural security from the spread of radical "woke" ideology. The candidate who connects most strongly with voters on this theme will likely come out on top.
Sunak's Misstep: Ignoring Security Concerns
During his recent conference speech, Sunak missed the mark by focusing on banning smoking and changing A-levels instead of addressing voters' security concerns. He seemed out of touch with the reality faced by ordinary people.
Time is on Sunak's Side
Despite slim odds of winning the next election, Sunak has one advantage—time. He should postpone any plans for an early election and push it back to late 2024 or early 2025. This will give him the opportunity to hope for favorable court rulings on his proposed "Rwanda plan" to tackle illegal immigration, and potentially see a decrease in the number of small boats crossing the Channel.
Slashing Legal Immigration
To address voters' concerns, Sunak should commit to reducing legal net migration to pre-Tory levels. He should also raise salary thresholds for migrant workers and limit the number of dependents entering the country. These steps will demonstrate a commitment to a "high skill" migration policy.
Tackling the Cost of Living Crisis
Voters' top priority is the cost of living. Sunak can't afford to slash taxes, but he can pave the way for future tax cuts by hoping for a continued decrease in inflation throughout 2024. He should also cut unnecessary spending on initiatives like "diversity, equality, and inclusion" in the public sector and reduce waste in the NHS. This will allow him to present a narrative of progress and stability, contrasting it with the perceived economic chaos and mass immigration under a Labour government.
While it remains to be seen if voters will buy into Sunak's strategy, the recent by-elections indicate a desire for change. As Sunak faces his last chance in the political arena, he must recognize that addressing voters' security concerns is his only option.
