An exclusive poll conducted by JL Partners reveals that London Mayor Sadiq Khan is at risk of losing his position to Conservative candidate Susan Hall in next year's May election. The survey shows that Hall is just three points behind Khan, with 32% of the vote compared to his 35%. Interestingly, despite receiving little support from senior Tories, Hall has managed to gain significant ground in the race.
Backlash Over Ulez Expansion
Khan's decision to expand the Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) to every borough in London has been met with backlash. Labour recently suffered a shock defeat in the Uxbridge by-election, where the ULEZ policy was a major dividing issue. Hall has capitalized on this discontent and has vowed to abolish the ULEZ on her first day in City Hall if elected.
A Divided Electorate
The polling indicates a close race, with Hall significantly ahead among male voters, older people, and residents of outer London. In contrast, Khan's support is primarily concentrated among younger voters living in the inner city. This two-horse race piles pressure on Reform UK candidate Howard Cox, who is polling at 8%, to drop out of the race amid concerns that he would split the vote and potentially benefit Hall.
Minor Parties and Ex-Labour Leader Lagging
The first-past-the-post system in place for next year's election amplifies the threat of minor parties siphoning away votes. This poses a challenge for Cox and other candidates. Additionally, the poll is a disappointment for former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is considering running as an independent, as he is currently polling at just 5%.